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Red111
511437.5
515032.7
523414.7
Blue115
365631.3
546030.6
608121.7
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1051086080120140160180111115

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.50.1
37.337.5
Auto8.4
Teleop23.1
End6.0
red by 6.1
31.30.2
32.232.4
Auto9.5
Teleop15.6
End6.3
Second
32.70.1
32.632.7
Auto6.2
Teleop21.0
End5.5
red by 2.1
30.60.2
31.431.6
Auto8.9
Teleop14.5
End7.2
Third
5234
#37
14.70.1
14.614.7
Auto4.0
Teleop9.3
End1.4
blue by 7.0
6081
#21
21.70.2
22.522.7
Auto7.3
Teleop11.5
End2.8