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Red103
85726.4
258626.9
567528.6
Blue125
598032.1
519424.4
365826.9
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10397050150200103125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5675
#16
28.60.1
28.328.3
Auto10.9
Teleop11.6
End6.2
blue by 3.5
5980
#10
32.10.5
31.532.0
Auto11.2
Teleop13.7
End7.2
Second
2586
#12
26.90.0
26.526.6
Auto6.7
Teleop16.0
End4.2
blue by 0.1
3658
#17
26.90.5
26.326.8
Auto8.8
Teleop14.4
End3.7
Third
857
#13
26.40.0
26.126.2
Auto5.4
Teleop16.7
End4.3
red by 2.1
24.40.5
23.724.2
Auto7.7
Teleop12.9
End3.8