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Red133
261130.3
546040.2
523827.8
Blue137
295933.8
335735.9
550232.4
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions120119100110130140150133137

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.20.4
39.439.7
Auto8.4
Teleop22.9
End8.9
red by 4.3
35.90.3
34.935.2
Auto8.0
Teleop22.1
End5.8
Second
2611
#11
30.30.4
29.529.9
Auto8.8
Teleop16.9
End4.6
blue by 3.5
33.80.3
32.733.0
Auto8.0
Teleop21.2
End4.6
Third
5238
#17
27.80.4
27.027.4
Auto8.7
Teleop15.4
End3.6
blue by 4.6
5502
#19
32.40.3
31.431.7
Auto8.1
Teleop14.5
End9.9