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Red96
353437.7
515537.7
592628.9
Blue127
102533.3
609835.8
609030.8
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1281175010015020025096127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.70.6
37.136.5
Auto11.6
Teleop20.0
End6.1
red by 1.9
35.80.2
35.435.6
Auto12.1
Teleop16.8
End6.9
Second
37.70.6
37.036.5
Auto6.1
Teleop19.1
End12.5
red by 4.4
1025
#17
33.30.2
32.933.1
Auto5.6
Teleop21.0
End6.6
Third
5926
#29
28.90.6
28.227.6
Auto7.4
Teleop11.9
End9.6
blue by 2.0
6090
#18
30.80.2
30.430.6
Auto10.3
Teleop14.8
End5.8