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Red107
313041.9
217536.7
304231.5
Blue119
392834.9
222527.1
302632.8
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14311150100200107119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.90.6
43.142.5
Auto15.8
Teleop18.9
End7.2
red by 7.0
3928
#15
34.90.1
34.834.7
Auto9.4
Teleop20.6
End4.9
Second
36.70.6
37.937.3
Auto10.7
Teleop22.1
End4.0
red by 4.0
3026
#20
32.80.1
32.732.6
Auto10.0
Teleop19.6
End3.2
Third
3042
#28
31.50.6
32.632.0
Auto8.9
Teleop16.1
End6.5
red by 4.4
2225
#16
27.10.2
27.026.8
Auto9.7
Teleop12.8
End4.7