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Red125
52547.1
205244.8
301821.4
Blue102
250234.3
282331.0
303827.4
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14610850200125102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
525
#2
47.10.5
48.047.6
Auto12.4
Teleop26.5
End8.3
red by 12.8
2502
#13
34.30.3
34.634.3
Auto8.6
Teleop22.1
End3.6
Second
44.80.5
45.745.2
Auto10.1
Teleop29.9
End4.9
red by 13.8
31.00.3
31.731.4
Auto13.8
Teleop14.4
End2.8
Third
3018
#41
21.40.5
22.321.9
Auto9.5
Teleop10.1
End1.9
blue by 5.9
3038
#20
27.40.4
28.528.0
Auto7.7
Teleop13.7
End6.0