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Red125
177534.5
198652.9
445520.7
Blue103
178528.7
495930.8
573029.8
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13410780100120160180200125103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.90.1
52.752.6
Auto16.2
Teleop27.7
End8.9
red by 22.1
30.80.2
31.231.0
Auto8.5
Teleop16.9
End5.3
Second
34.50.1
34.334.2
Auto7.6
Teleop19.6
End7.3
red by 4.7
5730
#16
29.80.2
30.230.0
Auto8.7
Teleop16.1
End4.9
Third
4455
#26
20.70.1
20.420.4
Auto6.5
Teleop11.8
End2.5
blue by 8.0
28.70.2
29.128.9
Auto8.8
Teleop15.1
End4.8