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Red155
331439.2
30336.3
566625.8
Blue153
43325.0
568431.7
10324.2
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12410250150155153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3314
#10
39.20.2
38.038.2
Auto8.0
Teleop25.2
End6.0
red by 7.5
31.70.4
31.131.5
Auto8.4
Teleop17.1
End6.2
Second
303
#1
36.30.2
35.135.2
Auto10.6
Teleop20.2
End5.5
red by 11.3
433
#22
25.00.4
24.424.8
Auto7.9
Teleop11.8
End5.3
Third
5666
#30
25.80.2
24.624.8
Auto6.3
Teleop14.0
End5.6
red by 1.7
103
#15
24.20.4
23.523.9
Auto4.4
Teleop15.0
End4.8