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Red130
458734.2
180645.5
509827.6
Blue61
452232.5
350740.9
144824.4
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13012505010015020025013061

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.50.1
45.245.3
Auto12.2
Teleop28.2
End5.2
red by 4.7
40.90.9
42.541.5
Auto11.1
Teleop24.3
End5.4
Second
34.20.1
33.833.9
Auto6.9
Teleop23.3
End4.1
red by 1.7
4522
#11
32.50.9
34.133.2
Auto6.9
Teleop21.3
End4.4
Third
5098
#38
27.60.1
27.227.3
Auto8.8
Teleop14.1
End4.6
red by 3.2
1448
#25
24.41.2
26.525.3
Auto9.3
Teleop11.1
End3.9