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Red161
458734.2
180645.5
509827.6
Blue107
393132.9
235232.5
93227.0
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13211450100150200161107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.50.2
45.345.5
Auto12.2
Teleop28.2
End5.2
red by 12.6
32.90.4
33.633.2
Auto10.1
Teleop17.5
End5.3
Second
34.20.3
33.934.2
Auto6.9
Teleop23.3
End4.1
red by 1.7
32.50.5
33.332.8
Auto7.7
Teleop20.9
End3.9
Third
5098
#38
27.60.2
27.327.5
Auto8.8
Teleop14.1
End4.6
red by 0.6
932
#20
27.00.4
27.627.2
Auto8.7
Teleop13.7
End4.6