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Red144
260931.2
151130.0
495123.3
Blue114
336033.5
569930.2
280921.7
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10610690100110120130140144114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.20.3
30.931.2
Auto10.3
Teleop15.8
End5.1
blue by 2.2
33.50.1
33.833.8
Auto8.3
Teleop17.2
End7.9
Second
30.00.3
29.730.0
Auto9.1
Teleop17.3
End3.6
blue by 0.2
30.20.1
30.630.5
Auto6.6
Teleop17.5
End6.2
Third
4951
#20
23.30.3
23.023.2
Auto6.1
Teleop14.9
End2.3
red by 1.6
2809
#16
21.70.1
22.122.0
Auto8.9
Teleop9.8
End3.0