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Red130
11848.4
205661.8
74623.9
Blue158
111451.1
124139.3
293527.5
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17413480100120160200220240130158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.80.9
62.962.1
Auto18.8
Teleop34.5
End8.4
red by 10.7
51.10.3
50.950.7
Auto16.8
Teleop26.2
End8.1
Second
118
#4
48.40.9
49.648.7
Auto12.2
Teleop30.9
End5.3
red by 9.1
39.30.3
39.138.9
Auto9.3
Teleop24.3
End5.7
Third
746
#14
23.91.1
25.324.2
Auto6.8
Teleop13.2
End4.0
blue by 3.5
2935
#23
27.50.3
27.327.1
Auto7.4
Teleop15.8
End4.2