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Red190
247142.0
154047.8
546831.4
Blue108
405733.5
302433.6
367321.0
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1549450200250190108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.80.6
47.347.8
Auto10.8
Teleop31.5
End5.5
red by 14.2
33.60.0
33.633.6
Auto9.3
Teleop19.6
End4.6
Second
42.00.6
41.542.1
Auto14.1
Teleop21.9
End6.0
red by 8.5
4057
#10
33.50.0
33.533.5
Auto9.2
Teleop20.1
End4.2
Third
5468
#17
31.40.6
30.931.5
Auto10.6
Teleop15.9
End5.0
red by 10.4
3673
#27
21.00.0
21.021.0
Auto7.5
Teleop10.2
End3.3