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Qual 682016 Tesla Division
Red156
580432.1
282339.0
54842.9
Blue103
219436.7
186032.8
304441.2
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11411280100120140160156103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
548
#48
42.91.4
42.7→44.1
Auto9.6
Teleop28.3
End5.0
red by 1.8
3044
#46
41.20.4
39.5→39.1
Auto9.6
Teleop24.8
End6.8
Second
2823
#6
39.01.4
35.2→36.6
Auto13.8
Teleop21.4
End3.7
red by 2.2
2194
#45
36.70.4
35.9→35.6
Auto11.3
Teleop17.8
End7.6
Third
5804
#42
32.11.4
32.2→33.6
Auto8.2
Teleop19.1
End4.8
blue by 0.8
1860
#67
32.80.4
33.3→32.9
Auto10.4
Teleop19.7
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
96%Breach oddsEarned95%Breach oddsMissed
Capture
8%Capture oddsMissed6%Capture oddsMissed