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Red172
331044.2
62437.5
419223.3
Blue114
348141.2
406339.4
258731.7
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions131137050100150200250172114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
44.20.0
44.244.2
Auto14.6
Teleop23.1
End6.5
red by 3.0
3481
#12
41.20.0
41.241.2
Auto7.8
Teleop28.2
End5.3
Second
624
#5
37.50.0
37.537.5
Auto8.6
Teleop26.1
End2.8
blue by 1.9
39.40.0
39.439.4
Auto8.9
Teleop23.5
End7.1
Third
4192
#34
23.30.0
23.323.3
Auto7.1
Teleop13.4
End2.7
blue by 8.5
2587
#33
31.70.0
31.731.7
Auto9.9
Teleop15.3
End6.5