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Red139
129636.5
458753.6
582922.8
Blue167
331044.2
62437.5
419223.3
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14013050100150200139167

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.60.0
53.653.6
Auto13.5
Teleop35.7
End4.3
red by 9.3
44.20.0
44.244.2
Auto14.6
Teleop23.1
End6.5
Second
36.50.0
36.536.5
Auto11.3
Teleop21.4
End3.9
blue by 1.0
624
#5
37.50.0
37.537.5
Auto8.6
Teleop26.1
End2.8
Third
5829
#28
22.80.0
22.822.8
Auto9.0
Teleop11.3
End2.6
blue by 0.4
4192
#34
23.30.0
23.323.3
Auto7.1
Teleop13.4
End2.7