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Red126
173136.6
527932.2
325814.6
Blue101
159823.2
307227.4
54016.4
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions103784060120140160126101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
36.60.4
36.036.4
Auto9.2
Teleop24.0
End3.3
red by 9.2
3072
#13
27.40.3
27.127.4
Auto6.5
Teleop16.4
End4.6
Second
32.20.4
31.632.0
Auto8.1
Teleop18.2
End5.9
red by 9.0
1598
#24
23.20.4
22.823.2
Auto7.5
Teleop11.1
End4.6
Third
3258
#33
14.60.4
14.014.5
Auto2.3
Teleop9.2
End3.2
blue by 1.7
540
#27
16.40.3
16.016.4
Auto4.0
Teleop11.3
End1.1