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Red157
108639.1
527937.8
335921.9
Blue153
580428.2
554636.5
313623.2
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12010050150200157153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.10.4
37.638.0
Auto10.7
Teleop22.4
End6.0
red by 2.6
36.50.5
35.536.0
Auto10.7
Teleop13.5
End12.3
Second
37.80.4
36.336.7
Auto8.6
Teleop22.7
End6.5
red by 9.6
5804
#21
28.20.5
27.127.7
Auto10.4
Teleop13.6
End4.2
Third
3359
#29
21.90.4
20.420.8
Auto7.8
Teleop11.3
End2.7
blue by 1.3
3136
#22
23.20.5
22.222.7
Auto7.0
Teleop13.1
End3.2