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Red131
188532.3
236337.6
595415.8
Blue91
428618.9
338929.0
619421.4
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11281406010012014016018013191

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.60.2
37.637.8
Auto8.1
Teleop19.8
End9.7
red by 8.6
3389
#14
29.00.0
29.029.0
Auto8.6
Teleop12.6
End7.9
Second
32.30.2
32.332.5
Auto6.1
Teleop22.4
End3.8
red by 10.9
6194
#18
21.40.0
21.421.4
Auto7.7
Teleop11.4
End2.4
Third
5954
#23
15.80.2
15.715.9
Auto6.7
Teleop8.2
End0.9
blue by 3.1
4286
#20
18.90.0
18.818.9
Auto4.3
Teleop11.0
End3.6