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Red100
357435.9
204638.2
298024.9
Blue121
321925.8
413129.2
406023.6
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12895050150200250100121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
38.20.5
38.738.2
Auto15.4
Teleop17.5
End5.3
red by 9.0
29.20.3
29.830.1
Auto7.8
Teleop16.3
End5.0
Second
35.90.5
36.335.9
Auto11.1
Teleop19.6
End5.2
red by 10.0
25.80.3
26.426.7
Auto4.5
Teleop16.2
End5.1
Third
2980
#23
24.90.5
25.324.9
Auto3.7
Teleop17.1
End4.2
red by 1.3
4060
#19
23.60.3
24.224.5
Auto8.7
Teleop10.8
End4.1