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Red70
407721.5
125825.2
368113.1
Blue57
297621.7
189915.7
582715.2
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5451204060801007057

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1258
#11
25.21.6
23.725.3
Auto8.4
Teleop12.5
End4.3
red by 3.6
2976
#16
21.70.6
23.023.6
Auto7.6
Teleop10.2
End3.9
Second
4077
#13
21.51.6
20.722.3
Auto3.0
Teleop14.5
End4.1
red by 5.8
1899
#18
15.70.5
12.112.6
Auto4.3
Teleop9.5
End2.0
Third
3681
#37
13.11.7
7.69.3
Auto2.2
Teleop9.2
End1.7
blue by 2.1
5827
#28
15.20.5
14.915.4
Auto6.7
Teleop8.6
End-0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
71%Breach oddsEarned66%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
0%Capture oddsMissed0%Capture oddsMissed