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Red147
220232.9
310236.8
585530.8
Blue124
173233.1
171439.4
319723.8
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12411780100140160180147124

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
36.80.0
36.336.3
Auto10.3
Teleop22.0
End4.5
blue by 2.6
39.40.2
39.439.6
Auto10.0
Teleop20.1
End9.3
Second
2202
#17
32.90.0
32.532.4
Auto8.7
Teleop18.2
End6.0
blue by 0.2
1732
#10
33.10.2
33.133.3
Auto7.6
Teleop20.4
End5.0
Third
5855
#23
30.80.1
30.330.2
Auto9.8
Teleop17.4
End3.6
red by 7.0
3197
#29
23.80.2
23.924.1
Auto7.3
Teleop11.4
End5.1