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Red107
88830.6
107121.7
261441.9
Blue91
495432.6
450531.8
541821.9
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions998705015020025030010791

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2614
Unranked
41.90.0
41.941.9
Auto12.9
Teleop21.9
End7.1
red by 9.3
4954
Unranked
32.60.0
32.632.6
Auto8.9
Teleop18.2
End5.5
Second
888
Unranked
30.60.0
30.630.6
Auto10.1
Teleop15.5
End5.0
blue by 1.2
4505
Unranked
31.80.0
31.831.8
Auto8.8
Teleop19.0
End4.1
Third
1071
Unranked
21.70.0
21.721.7
Auto7.3
Teleop10.6
End3.8
blue by 0.3
5418
Unranked
21.90.0
21.921.9
Auto5.4
Teleop11.7
End4.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
82%Breach odds75%Breach odds
Capture
7%Capture odds6%Capture odds