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Red305
419146.4
501597.1
244108.3
Blue251
216101.9
667989.6
551585.8
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions251301100200400500600305251

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
244
#4
108.31.3
106.2107.6
Auto13.1
Teleop46.0
End49.2
red by 6.3
216
#9
101.90.6
102.6101.9
Auto11.0
Teleop41.8
End49.2
Second
97.11.8
94.496.2
Auto16.1
Teleop46.1
End35.0
red by 7.5
89.60.8
90.489.6
Auto6.9
Teleop37.9
End44.7
Third
4191
#20
46.41.8
43.745.5
Auto4.0
Teleop23.8
End18.6
blue by 39.3
5515
#35
85.80.6
86.485.8
Auto13.6
Teleop41.1
End31.0