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Red449
371997.5
1986167.1
3310137.7
Blue490
3683108.8
3452125.4
2084102.6
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions527448300400500600700449490

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1986
Unranked
167.11.7
168.7167.0
Auto43.3
Teleop64.6
End59.2
red by 41.7
3452
Unranked
125.40.5
127.0127.5
Auto16.0
Teleop55.7
End53.6
Second
3310
Unranked
137.71.7
139.3137.6
Auto24.5
Teleop60.6
End52.6
red by 28.9
3683
Unranked
108.80.5
110.5111.0
Auto13.4
Teleop57.3
End38.1
Third
3719
Unranked
97.51.7
99.197.4
Auto8.1
Teleop54.7
End34.6
blue by 5.1
2084
Unranked
102.60.5
104.2104.7
Auto9.7
Teleop52.5
End40.3