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Red465
604118.8
290380.2
2848119.0
Blue401
2046124.6
1318102.5
2907104.5
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions403400340360380420440460480465401

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2848
Unranked
119.00.5
118.5119.0
Auto14.6
Teleop57.2
End47.2
blue by 5.6
2046
Unranked
124.60.9
126.6125.7
Auto14.6
Teleop58.0
End52.0
Second
604
Unranked
118.80.5
118.3118.8
Auto10.6
Teleop56.9
End51.3
red by 14.3
2907
Unranked
104.50.9
106.6105.6
Auto12.5
Teleop49.5
End42.5
Third
2903
Unranked
80.20.5
79.780.2
Auto6.6
Teleop47.0
End26.7
blue by 22.2
1318
Unranked
102.50.9
104.5103.6
Auto14.8
Teleop49.7
End38.0