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Red255
83258.1
164875.5
174687.5
Blue257
411268.2
670578.0
402659.2
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions218211100300400255257

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1746
#15
87.51.3
82.583.9
Auto11.1
Teleop54.8
End21.6
red by 9.5
78.01.7
76.578.1
Auto6.4
Teleop41.5
End30.1
Second
75.51.3
70.571.9
Auto8.6
Teleop33.0
End33.8
red by 7.3
4112
#10
68.21.5
66.868.3
Auto9.7
Teleop40.1
End18.4
Third
832
#34
58.11.5
52.854.2
Auto3.2
Teleop25.9
End29.1
blue by 1.0
4026
#17
59.21.5
57.859.3
Auto8.8
Teleop32.1
End18.3