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Red215
399849.8
560880.7
418978.0
Blue255
411268.2
670578.0
402659.2
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2261780100300400500215255

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
80.70.2
80.580.7
Auto4.8
Teleop41.6
End34.2
red by 2.7
78.02.4
67.469.8
Auto6.4
Teleop41.5
End30.1
Second
78.00.2
77.878.0
Auto8.1
Teleop31.5
End38.4
red by 9.8
4112
#10
68.22.2
58.560.7
Auto9.7
Teleop40.1
End18.4
Third
3998
#22
49.80.2
49.649.8
Auto4.8
Teleop28.1
End16.9
blue by 9.4
4026
#17
59.22.2
49.551.6
Auto8.8
Teleop32.1
End18.3