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Red250
424147.1
584786.9
2169102.9
Blue249
582274.5
318484.4
409681.3
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions249253150200300350400250249

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
102.90.4
102.8103.2
Auto6.7
Teleop48.2
End48.0
red by 18.5
84.40.3
84.184.4
Auto10.1
Teleop42.3
End32.0
Second
86.90.4
86.887.1
Auto8.7
Teleop31.6
End46.6
red by 5.6
4096
#27
81.30.3
81.081.3
Auto6.1
Teleop25.9
End49.2
Third
4241
#37
47.10.4
47.047.4
Auto8.6
Teleop24.9
End13.6
blue by 27.3
5822
#22
74.50.3
74.274.5
Auto5.9
Teleop37.7
End30.9