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Red431
307581.6
1690117.6
1937103.5
Blue453
223092.1
458681.1
5654109.2
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions335283100200400500431453

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
117.60.6
117.7118.3
Auto26.3
Teleop55.5
End35.8
red by 8.4
5654
#13
109.21.7
106.7108.4
Auto13.1
Teleop46.5
End49.6
Second
103.50.6
103.6104.2
Auto12.3
Teleop56.5
End34.7
red by 11.5
2230
#39
92.11.7
89.691.3
Auto12.8
Teleop43.9
End35.4
Third
3075
#44
81.60.6
81.782.3
Auto9.0
Teleop37.0
End35.6
red by 0.5
4586
#11
81.11.7
78.680.4
Auto9.5
Teleop43.1
End28.5