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Red235
307549.0
1577100.6
321177.3
Blue240
209663.9
383580.8
555449.8
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions21218950100150250300350400235240

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
100.61.0
90.991.9
Auto9.3
Teleop35.2
End56.1
red by 19.8
80.81.6
76.878.3
Auto7.7
Teleop36.0
End37.1
Second
77.31.0
67.568.5
Auto8.9
Teleop33.3
End35.1
red by 13.3
2096
#13
63.91.6
59.961.5
Auto4.6
Teleop28.6
End30.7
Third
3075
#23
49.01.0
39.340.3
Auto8.3
Teleop24.3
End16.4
blue by 0.8
5554
#22
49.81.4
46.147.6
Auto8.9
Teleop30.8
End10.1