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Red311
322997.3
4561116.1
90097.0
Blue286
3196100.8
340286.4
2059100.2
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions338311100200400500311286

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
116.10.2
117.6117.4
Auto10.8
Teleop51.2
End54.0
red by 15.2
3196
#18
100.80.8
104.0103.2
Auto8.4
Teleop48.4
End44.0
Second
3229
#19
97.30.2
98.898.6
Auto13.7
Teleop43.8
End39.7
blue by 2.9
2059
#23
100.20.8
103.3102.5
Auto11.2
Teleop42.5
End46.5
Third
900
#2
97.00.2
98.598.3
Auto16.2
Teleop44.6
End36.2
red by 10.7
3402
#10
86.40.8
89.588.7
Auto12.8
Teleop44.8
End28.8