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Red280
322997.3
4561116.1
90097.0
Blue189
3196100.8
340286.4
2059100.2
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions337308100200400500280189

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
116.11.3
117.4116.1
Auto10.8
Teleop51.2
End54.0
red by 15.2
3196
#18
100.82.3
103.2100.8
Auto8.4
Teleop48.4
End44.0
Second
3229
#19
97.31.3
98.697.3
Auto13.7
Teleop43.8
End39.7
blue by 2.9
2059
#23
100.22.3
102.5100.2
Auto11.2
Teleop42.5
End46.5
Third
900
#2
97.01.3
98.397.0
Auto16.2
Teleop44.6
End36.2
red by 10.7
3402
#10
86.42.3
88.786.4
Auto12.8
Teleop44.8
End28.8