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Red145
397143.9
663962.7
476745.9
Blue170
482939.5
572745.6
656534.7
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions170113050150200250300350400145170

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.70.2
63.062.8
Auto8.5
Teleop31.2
End23.1
red by 17.0
5727
#10
45.60.7
43.944.6
Auto8.0
Teleop30.5
End7.1
Second
4767
#11
45.90.2
46.346.1
Auto10.1
Teleop33.8
End2.0
red by 6.4
4829
#13
39.50.7
37.938.5
Auto8.5
Teleop30.9
End0.1
Third
3971
#15
43.90.2
44.344.1
Auto4.8
Teleop32.2
End6.9
red by 9.3
6565
#16
34.70.7
33.133.7
Auto7.1
Teleop18.5
End9.1