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Red343
75250.0
2168121.7
303103.9
Blue265
1257100.4
180790.4
198988.1
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions265297100150200350400450343265

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
121.71.4
114.9116.3
Auto16.6
Teleop61.2
End44.0
red by 21.3
1257
#11
100.40.3
99.799.4
Auto6.9
Teleop49.7
End43.8
Second
303
#17
103.91.4
97.198.5
Auto15.5
Teleop43.5
End45.0
red by 13.5
1807
#10
90.40.3
89.689.4
Auto5.8
Teleop40.1
End44.5
Third
752
#26
50.01.4
43.244.6
Auto5.4
Teleop26.6
End18.0
blue by 38.1
1989
#12
88.10.3
88.488.1
Auto13.1
Teleop33.7
End41.4