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Red320
496863.0
1305117.3
4678106.0
Blue287
107579.2
493280.9
373970.5
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions288230100200400500320287

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
117.31.2
110.2111.4
Auto11.0
Teleop59.1
End47.3
red by 36.5
4932
#12
80.90.8
79.480.2
Auto7.6
Teleop37.6
End35.6
Second
106.01.2
98.9100.1
Auto14.7
Teleop43.0
End48.3
red by 26.9
1075
#14
79.20.8
77.778.5
Auto5.2
Teleop37.1
End36.9
Third
4968
#19
63.01.2
55.957.1
Auto8.5
Teleop25.2
End29.4
blue by 7.4
3739
#16
70.50.8
69.069.8
Auto6.5
Teleop33.8
End30.2