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Red185
473242.0
107581.5
540698.4
Blue215
542871.0
656458.0
509255.6
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2431790100200300400185215

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5406
#14
98.40.8
98.597.6
Auto12.6
Teleop49.7
End36.1
red by 27.4
5428
#11
71.00.8
69.069.8
Auto9.2
Teleop33.5
End28.3
Second
81.50.8
81.580.7
Auto8.6
Teleop31.4
End41.5
red by 23.5
6564
#10
58.00.8
56.056.8
Auto10.3
Teleop34.9
End12.9
Third
4732
#17
42.00.8
42.141.3
Auto4.5
Teleop31.5
End6.0
blue by 13.5
5092
#20
55.60.8
53.554.3
Auto8.7
Teleop28.7
End18.1