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Red261
669657.2
466289.3
5970108.2
Blue334
2471101.4
3024101.5
135954.3
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2702570100200400500600700261334

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
108.20.1
108.0108.2
Auto12.7
Teleop47.9
End47.6
red by 6.6
101.52.0
97.799.7
Auto11.9
Teleop46.7
End43.0
Second
89.30.1
89.289.3
Auto8.9
Teleop37.1
End43.3
blue by 12.1
101.42.0
97.699.6
Auto8.6
Teleop48.3
End44.6
Third
6696
#20
57.20.1
57.157.2
Auto7.6
Teleop30.4
End19.2
red by 2.9
1359
#27
54.32.0
50.552.4
Auto5.9
Teleop31.4
End16.9