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Red255
585963.3
355093.0
311799.4
Blue199
591066.8
336096.2
400761.6
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions289231100200400500255199

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
99.40.3
102.7102.5
Auto13.4
Teleop48.2
End37.9
red by 3.2
96.20.9
97.196.2
Auto9.6
Teleop42.8
End43.9
Second
93.00.3
96.396.0
Auto5.2
Teleop41.7
End46.1
red by 26.2
5910
#28
66.80.8
67.666.8
Auto6.9
Teleop26.9
End32.9
Third
5859
#26
63.30.3
67.767.3
Auto7.5
Teleop30.8
End24.9
red by 1.6
4007
#39
61.60.9
62.661.6
Auto3.7
Teleop23.1
End34.9