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Red290
3737107.0
2059100.2
4451117.5
Blue185
3196101.5
349093.0
350671.4
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3822680100200500600700800290185

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4451
Unranked
117.50.0
117.5117.5
Auto12.9
Teleop48.8
End55.8
red by 16.0
3196
Unranked
101.50.0
101.5101.5
Auto12.6
Teleop49.0
End39.9
Second
3737
Unranked
107.00.0
107.0107.0
Auto11.5
Teleop55.2
End40.2
red by 14.0
3490
Unranked
93.00.0
93.093.0
Auto10.8
Teleop34.7
End47.4
Third
2059
Unranked
100.20.0
100.2100.2
Auto8.4
Teleop49.6
End42.3
red by 28.8
3506
Unranked
71.40.0
71.471.4
Auto10.8
Teleop35.6
End25.0