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Red185
999956.6
399988.5
1296100.0
Blue423
2848110.8
4587107.3
632163.5
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions266311100200400500185423

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
100.01.5
102.4100.9
Auto12.7
Teleop49.3
End37.9
blue by 10.8
110.81.0
110.0111.0
Auto12.7
Teleop57.5
End40.6
Second
88.51.5
90.989.4
Auto8.7
Teleop39.8
End40.0
blue by 18.8
107.31.0
106.5107.5
Auto13.0
Teleop51.3
End43.0
Third
9999
#22
56.61.5
59.057.5
Auto6.3
Teleop26.6
End23.7
blue by 6.9
6321
#21
63.51.0
62.763.7
Auto6.3
Teleop30.7
End26.5