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Red190
349456.6
54088.8
58769.1
Blue265
167659.8
253468.2
159945.7
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions223160050100200250300350400190265

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
540
#1
88.80.3
85.184.8
Auto5.7
Teleop43.4
End39.7
red by 20.6
2534
#11
68.22.6
63.766.2
Auto8.2
Teleop39.8
End20.1
Second
587
#3
69.10.3
65.064.7
Auto2.4
Teleop40.5
End26.1
red by 9.2
1676
#32
59.82.4
55.758.0
Auto8.2
Teleop30.4
End21.2
Third
3494
#18
56.60.3
52.552.2
Auto4.6
Teleop28.8
End23.2
red by 11.0
1599
#17
45.72.6
41.143.7
Auto3.8
Teleop15.9
End26.0