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Red310
349456.6
54088.8
58769.1
Blue198
159879.9
83679.4
632634.5
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2202020100300400500600700800310198

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
540
#1
88.81.8
86.288.0
Auto5.7
Teleop43.4
End39.7
red by 8.9
1598
#14
79.90.1
79.980.0
Auto6.0
Teleop28.0
End45.8
Second
587
#3
69.12.0
66.268.3
Auto2.4
Teleop40.5
End26.1
blue by 10.4
836
#5
79.40.1
79.479.6
Auto2.1
Teleop32.7
End44.7
Third
3494
#18
56.62.0
53.855.8
Auto4.6
Teleop28.8
End23.2
red by 22.2
6326
#21
34.50.1
34.434.6
Auto5.4
Teleop20.7
End8.3