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Red145
294445.0
597580.6
449580.4
Blue310
445090.2
371195.5
322362.3
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2152600100300400500145310

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
80.61.4
82.080.6
Auto13.2
Teleop30.9
End36.5
blue by 14.9
95.51.4
93.094.5
Auto9.6
Teleop40.5
End45.3
Second
4495
#26
80.41.4
81.880.4
Auto8.6
Teleop33.9
End38.0
blue by 9.8
4450
#10
90.21.4
87.789.2
Auto9.8
Teleop37.6
End42.7
Third
2944
#16
45.01.4
46.445.0
Auto5.8
Teleop24.3
End14.9
blue by 17.4
3223
#34
62.31.4
59.961.3
Auto6.7
Teleop29.4
End26.3