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Red200
607647.1
159581.7
592083.9
Blue205
412557.3
594263.3
322034.3
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2161410100300400500200205

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
83.90.1
77.877.9
Auto9.0
Teleop34.8
End40.1
red by 20.6
5942
#13
63.31.3
59.861.1
Auto4.9
Teleop35.5
End22.9
Second
81.70.1
75.775.8
Auto10.6
Teleop36.8
End34.3
red by 24.4
4125
#14
57.31.3
53.855.2
Auto5.4
Teleop29.8
End22.1
Third
6076
#23
47.10.1
41.141.2
Auto5.7
Teleop30.3
End11.2
red by 12.8
3220
#20
34.31.3
30.832.1
Auto4.8
Teleop18.9
End10.6