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Red574
1414180.6
6502181.7
4911189.0
Blue327
3132146.4
4944171.4
5805161.8
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4133130100200500600700800574327

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
189.00.3
180.3180.0
Auto22.9
Teleop139.8
End29.1
red by 17.6
171.40.3
168.9168.5
Auto24.1
Teleop129.9
End19.4
Second
6502
#11
181.70.7
175.3175.9
Auto22.6
Teleop141.5
End16.7
red by 19.9
5805
#33
161.80.8
160.1160.9
Auto18.5
Teleop116.3
End28.7
Third
180.60.8
177.3176.5
Auto23.7
Teleop134.7
End24.6
red by 34.1
3132
#12
146.40.2
144.9144.7
Auto18.7
Teleop94.0
End30.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
95%Auto Quest oddsEarned78%Auto Quest oddsEarned
Face the Boss
6%Face the Boss oddsEarned34%Face the Boss oddsMissed