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Red436
4499159.5
2910220.2
4911190.3
Blue309
4061157.1
1619217.8
1678252.1
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions36739602006008001,0001,2001,400436309

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2910
Unranked
220.20.3
219.2219.4
Auto21.5
Teleop169.0
End29.0
blue by 31.9
1678
Unranked
252.10.1
252.6252.5
Auto29.0
Teleop173.2
End48.1
Second
4911
Unranked
190.30.2
189.4189.6
Auto22.8
Teleop140.0
End27.5
blue by 27.5
1619
Unranked
217.80.2
218.6218.4
Auto24.8
Teleop155.9
End34.6
Third
4499
Unranked
159.50.3
158.7159.0
Auto26.3
Teleop120.5
End11.7
red by 2.4
4061
Unranked
157.10.0
157.3157.3
Auto23.4
Teleop117.5
End15.5