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Red281
1296163.5
2655177.2
1533200.4
Blue361
3374147.3
1574217.7
4488198.5
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions343400100200300500600700281361

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1533
Unranked
200.40.4
199.5199.8
Auto24.1
Teleop144.8
End33.1
blue by 17.3
1574
Unranked
217.70.1
218.1218.0
Auto22.7
Teleop163.6
End28.8
Second
2655
Unranked
177.20.1
177.0177.2
Auto24.7
Teleop135.6
End16.8
blue by 21.2
4488
Unranked
198.50.2
198.2198.3
Auto23.2
Teleop141.3
End33.5
Third
1296
Unranked
163.50.3
162.9163.1
Auto19.0
Teleop127.9
End17.0
red by 16.2
3374
Unranked
147.30.0
147.3147.3
Auto22.6
Teleop113.8
End10.8