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Red251
571130.2
4572121.7
3314158.8
Blue189
4097123.9
3525118.6
5142126.7
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions351263100200300400500600251189

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
158.81.1
156.7157.8
Auto21.3
Teleop112.2
End26.9
red by 32.1
5142
#22
126.70.1
127.4127.3
Auto18.6
Teleop95.7
End12.4
Second
571
#17
130.21.5
128.2129.7
Auto16.7
Teleop100.2
End11.3
red by 6.3
4097
#26
123.90.1
124.2124.1
Auto13.9
Teleop97.5
End12.4
Third
4572
#28
121.71.8
123.5121.7
Auto17.4
Teleop95.4
End7.7
red by 3.1
3525
#23
118.61.2
119.8118.6
Auto16.1
Teleop84.9
End16.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
41%Auto Quest oddsEarned27%Auto Quest oddsMissed
Face the Boss
11%Face the Boss oddsMissed3%Face the Boss oddsMissed