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Red197
4509128.3
5109116.7
513297.0
Blue274
4189144.4
177191.9
5332113.7
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2173010100400500600700197274

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4509
#25
128.31.0
117.9118.9
Auto12.1
Teleop102.1
End15.0
blue by 16.1
4189
#14
144.40.5
144.5144.0
Auto16.6
Teleop111.8
End15.7
Second
5109
#19
116.71.6
125.0123.5
Auto17.5
Teleop89.9
End10.9
red by 3.0
5332
#34
113.71.2
119.1117.9
Auto15.2
Teleop88.2
End11.1
Third
5132
#33
97.02.4
111.3108.9
Auto12.6
Teleop78.3
End9.5
red by 5.1
1771
#32
91.90.1
99.799.8
Auto13.0
Teleop71.1
End8.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
21%Auto Quest oddsMissed24%Auto Quest oddsMissed
Face the Boss
2%Face the Boss oddsMissed3%Face the Boss oddsMissed